Lafayette Online » Agriculture

Projection shows Midwest water woes likely based on warmer temperatures

Carolyn Shelby — Tue, 16 Feb 2010 21:51:40 +0000

WEST LAFAYETTE, Ind. — Several Midwestern states could be facing increased winter and spring flooding, as well as difficult growing conditions on farms, if average temperatures rise, according to a Purdue University researcher.

Keith Cherkauer, an assistant professor of agricultural and biological engineering, surveys the Wabash River, one of many that could experience an increase in winter and spring flooding based on rising temperatures in the next century. (Purdue Agricultural Communication photo/Tom Campbell)

Keith Cherkauer, an assistant professor of agricultural and biological engineering, ran simulation models that show Indiana, Illinois, Wisconsin and Michigan could see as much as 28 percent more precipitation by the year 2070, with much of that coming in the winter and spring. His projections also show drier summer and fall seasons.

“This was already a difficult spring to plant because of how wet it was. If you were to add another inch or so of rain to that, it would be a problem,” said Cherkauer, whose findings were published in the early online version of the Journal of Great Lakes Research. “It could make it difficult to get into fields. There’s also a potential for more flooding.”

Cherkauer used three different scenarios based on the amount of carbon that could be emitted into the atmosphere in the coming decades. Carbon calculations were based on assumptions including population, technological advancements, the economy and other factors.

Those scenarios were used in two climate projection models from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change that give climate predictions from the years 1950 through 2099. Cherkauer said in years from 1950 to 2007 where actual climate data differed slightly from projections, the difference was subtracted to give a better projection for the future.

He calculated that winters in the four states could be between 2.7 degrees to 5.4 degrees Fahrenheit warmer by 2077 than today. Summers could be between 3.6 degrees and 10.8 degrees Fahrenheit warmer.

Those projections were then put into the Variable Infiltration Capacity Model – which simulates how precipitation moves through land surface environments – to predict stream flow for six rivers: the Chippewa River, Wisconsin River, Illinois River, Wabash River, Grand River and Rock River.

Cherkauer estimates that increased precipitation would result in about a 20 percent increase in peak and mean flows for the Wabash River, for instance.

Daily river flow would be lower during the summer and fall despite an expected increase in thunderstorms and heavy-rain events. Overall precipitation would be down in those seasons, he said, and heavy rains from time to time would still leave prolonged periods without precipitation.

“This area is not going to be short of water, but we may not have it at the right times,” Cherkauer said. “We probably need to figure out how to store the excess water from the spring so we have it in the summer when we need it.”

He said there are several possible avenues for storing spring water, from damming rivers to create reservoirs, to refilling aquifers that are pumped for water in the summer.

Cherkauer said next he wants to study how climate predictions would affect drought conditions, as well as how the projections on stream flow would impact aquatic life and ecology. NASA funded his research.

Cherkauer’s work is affiliated with the Purdue Climate Change Research Center and the Center for the Environment in Discovery Park.

Economist: Farmers should prepare for lenders’ questions

Carolyn Shelby — Tue, 09 Feb 2010 20:09:24 +0000

WEST LAFAYETTE, Ind. -– When commodity prices are high and incomes are up, farmers often can borrow money to plant their spring crop with almost no questions asked by lenders. That is not the case this year, said a Purdue University agricultural economist.

As farmers approach lenders about renewing their operating line of credit they should be prepared to answer questions about their profitability, managing risk and working capital, said Michael Boehlje.

“If you look back at the last couple of years, grain farmers have had pretty good incomes — even though operating costs rose quite a bit — so lenders felt fairly comfortable with the profit margins many producers had, meaning it was not as tough getting an operating loan,” Boehlje said.

“This year a lot of lenders are increasingly concerned about risk because of the financial challenges they face from regulators and loan review committees. So most farmers should anticipate providing their lenders with concrete, definitive answers to loan-related questions. Part of your job as a farmer is to sell your credit worthiness.”

Questions about profitability could be among the first asked by lenders, Boehlje said.

“Farmers need to fully understand the profitability of their business,” he said. “If it hasn’t been profitable, they’ll need a plan for turning that around. You want to make sure before you talk to your lender that you have a solid understanding of what you’re reporting on your Schedule F tax form for profits.”

Schedule F is for self-employed farmers. Because producers often adjust their taxable income up or down through the strategic timing of crop sales, the information on the tax form can vary greatly from year to year.

“Your lender is going to ask you if you changed your strategy this year compared to last year in terms of sales,” Boehlje said. “They will want to know if you prepaid or delayed expenses.”

Managing risk questions likely will focus on crop insurance.

“Lenders may be encouraging you to up your coverage level,” Boehlje said. “Maybe you’re buying crop insurance at a 70 or 75 percent coverage level. They may say you might need to up that coverage because your input costs are up and your existing coverage won’t cover even input costs. The lender might want you to have more protection, which means it could cost you more money. There might be some sticker shock if the lender starts talking about 80 or 85 percent coverage.”

Farmers also would be wise to retain adequate working capital when seeking a new operating loan, Boehlje said.

“Probably the most important thing that a farmer can do to protect their working capital is to make sure that they don’t make any capital expenditures out of current cash,” he said. “The quickest way to destroy working capital is to say, ‘Well, I sold some grain and put some cash in the bank, but I do need to replace that tractor.’ Or, ‘I need to buy a new planter, and I’ll just use that cash to do that, and not pay down on my operating line.’

“Be really careful about destroying your working capital position. Lenders are going to be asking more and more questions about that this year.”

Boehlje said farmers should keep a few other things in mind when meeting with lenders:

Covenants – Lenders could place more restrictions or covenants on farm borrowers in 2010. A covenant is a set of conditions under which the borrower must comply and spells out the consequences for violating those conditions.

“A common covenant is a limit on capital expenditures without prior approval,” Boehlje said. “The purpose is to make sure that cash that could be used for debt servicing or buying operating inputs is not diverted to capital expenditures that do not directly contribute to the cash flow of the operation.”

Liquidating assets – While usually a smart strategy for paying down debt, selling less productive assets can result in an unintended taxable gain. “Farmers should visit with their tax accountant before liquidating any assets and using the proceeds for debt reduction,” Boehlje said.

Farm Service Agency (FSA) loan guarantees – “In some cases you and your lender may find that a FSA loan guarantee is needed to support the financing request,” Boehlje said. “If that is perceived to be a possibility, it is critical to move quickly to start the process and get the application submitted. Many commercial lenders are positioned to facilitate guaranteed loan applications and you don’t necessarily have to go to FSA to apply.”

Additional loan renewal tips are available in Boehlje’s white paper, “The Loan Renewal Season: Your Lender’s Concerns.” It is available online at http://www.agecon.purdue.edu/news/financial/LOAN_RENEWAL_SEASON.pdf

Conference offers financial advice for pork producers

Carolyn Shelby — Wed, 13 Jan 2010 01:51:46 +0000

WEST LAFAYETTE, Ind. — In a time of financial uncertainty, pork producers can learn about ways to find relief at the Central Indiana Pork Conference on Jan. 20 at Rossville High School.

The conference, from 9 a.m. to 3:15 p.m., is sponsored by the Clinton County Pork Producers and Purdue Extension Clinton County.

“It’s been more than two years since pork producers have made a profit overall,” said Curt Emanuel, educator, Purdue Extension Clinton County. “Things may start to look up later this year, but farmers need to be prepared to take advantage of the improved prices we expect to see this summer. The conference will provide them the tools they need to do so.”

Conference presentations include a pork industry outlook by Chris Hurt, Purdue agricultural economist, and “Dealing With Contracts in a Changing Pork Industry” by Ken Perkins, First Farmers Bank of Peru. Other presenters include Brian Richert, Purdue swine specialist, and Dave Murray of Indiana Packers.

Representatives from the National Pork Board and Indiana Pork will provide industry-related information, including an update on legislative changes that may impact producers.

Conference registration is due Jan. 15. The $20 fee includes sessions, refreshments and lunch. A printable brochure and registration form is available online at https://www.extension.purdue.edu/Clinton/PorkConfBroch10.pdf

Participants also may register by sending their name, address, telephone number and e-mail address to Clinton County CES, 1111 Jackson St., Frankfort IN 46041. Checks should be made payable to Clinton County Pork Producers.

Rossville High School is located at 1 Robert Egly Drive in Rossville.

High commodity prices cause tax increase on Indiana farmland

Carolyn Shelby — Wed, 02 Dec 2009 08:00:43 +0000

WEST LAFAYETTE, Ind. — Indiana farmers could see a substantial increase in property taxes over the next few years if the state’s farmland taxation formulas remain unchanged, said one Purdue University expert.

“Indiana assesses farmland based on its use value rather than its market value,” said Purdue agricultural economist Larry DeBoer. “Almost all states do this. It is a value based on how much income a farm acre can earn if it is used in agriculture. This means that farmland that borders on commercial or residential development is not assessed based on selling price, but rather only on the income it can earn from farming.”

The government calculates farm property taxes with a formula that takes into account three separate factors.

“The formula starts with the base rate, which is a dollar amount per acre that is set by the state’s oversight agency on property taxes,” DeBoer said. “The base rate is multiplied by a productivity factor, which is based on soil productivity for growing corn. Those factors range from about 0.5 to 1.3. For some acreage an influence factor is subtracted. That factor is a percentage reduction in the dollar amount based on things like frequent flooding, grade or forest cover. So, base rate, times productivity factor, minus influence factor, gives you the dollar amount per acre that’s actually taxed.”

Where the problem comes into the formula is that commodity prices are accounted for when the base rate is determined.

“Since 2006 Indiana has been trending its assessed values, meaning changing every year based on changes in a whole host of factors like land rents, commodity prices, costs and interest rates,” DeBoer said.

Land rents have been going up some, but commodity prices were high in 2007-2008. Since the base rate formula is a six-year rolling average with a four-year lag, taxes payable in 2011 will include the 2007 commodity prices, and 2012 taxes will include both 2007 and 2008 commodity prices.

The problem with this, DeBoer said, is that over a five-year period the farmland base rate per acre will have nearly doubled from $880 for taxes in 2007 to more than $1,600 in 2012. But there are potential solutions the Legislature can consider to offer some relief.

“They could reduce it from a six-year lag to four and that would make the two big years drop out two years sooner,” he said. “They could also move it up from a four-year lag to a two-year lag. So, if they did both those things, they’d get those two big numbers out in about two years instead of about six.”

In addition, DeBoer said some farm interest groups have suggested an Olympic-style average system in which the high and the low numbers are dropped and the rest are averaged.

Indiana recently passed a 2 percent farmland property tax cap that will be implemented in 2010. However, DeBoer said the cap won’t be of much assistance to farmers because of their rural locations.

“The tax cap for farmland is 2 percent,” he said. “What that means is that you take the initial assessed value per acre, apart from any deductions, multiply that by 2 percent and that is the maximum amount a farmer would have to pay in property taxes on that acre.

“That’s terrific if you happen to be in a place where your tax rate is higher than $2 per $100 assessed value, or higher than 2 percent. However, most of the time, out in rural areas where farmland is found, tax rates are lower than the $2 limit.”

Limiting farmland assessments is likely to shift taxes to other taxpayers, DeBoer said. That means that legislators representing primarily non-farming areas will want to have a say in the farmland assessment formula.

“The way homeowners and industry, urban and suburban counties respond to these measures is going to be important politically,” he said. “If you reduce the assessed value of farmland in order to reduce taxes for farmers, and you raise the same amount of revenue from the property tax, that means somebody else has to pay more.”

Conference examines future of biofuels production

Carolyn Shelby — Sat, 28 Nov 2009 03:34:41 +0000

WEST LAFAYETTE, Ind. — Cropfields could play a major role in future energy needs, and some of the world’s top researchers will discuss the challenges and opportunities for agriculture in the renewable fuels industry during a conference co-sponsored by Purdue University.

Growing the Bioeconomy: Solutions for Sustainability takes place from 10 a.m. to 6:30 p.m. EST Tuesday (Dec. 1). The conference is a collaborative effort between Purdue and sister land-grant universities in 11 other Midwest states. The event is open to the public.

Purdue Extension and Purdue’s Energy Center at Discovery Park are hosting a conference viewing site in Stewart Center, Room 306, on the university’s West Lafayette campus. The conference also can be viewed online.

Registration is $25 for those viewing the conference at Stewart Center and $50 for online viewing.

Fuel produced from corn stover, switchgrass and other types of plant cellulose presents new markets for agriculture, said Chad Martin, Purdue Extension renewable energy specialist.

“New opportunities from greater utilization of biomass resources for energy production may likely initiate a dynamic change for how agricultural business is conducted in places like rural Indiana,” Martin said. “International and U.S. experts will convene through this conference to shed light on the views of climate change and how emerging policy decisions could impact energy production technology.”

Conference speakers will address a broad range of topics, from commodity feedstocks to uses for biochar – the leftover material after cellulose is converted into fuel.

Purdue agricultural economists Wally Tyner and Steven Wu are among the speakers. Tyner will discuss second-generation biofuels economic and policy matters, with Wu delving into contracting issues between growers and biofuels producers.

James Lovelock, a renowned expert on global environmental science, is the conference’s keynote speaker. Secretary of Agriculture Tom Vilsack also will make remarks to conference participants.

Registration information is available by visiting the Purdue Renewable Energy Web site at http://www.extension.purdue.edu/renewable-energy and clicking on the link to the conference on the right side of the home page.

For additional conference information, including an agenda, visit the conference Web site at http://www.bioeconomyconference.org

Gray and pink molds turning up in Indiana cornfields

Carolyn Shelby — Sun, 11 Oct 2009 20:26:57 +0000

WEST LAFAYETTE, Ind. — Wet, cool conditions not only keep farmers out of the fields, but also favor moldy corn. One Purdue University specialist is getting calls from around the state about Diplodia and Gibberella ear rots in corn.

A pink mold that starts at the ear tip is characteristic of Gibberella ear rot. (Photo A. Robertson)

There’s a lot of Diplodia ear rot throughout Indiana, especially in the northeast and southeast, said Charles Woloshuk, a Purdue Extension pathologist who specializes in corn mycotoxins. Anywhere from a few percent to up to 30 percent of the ears are infected, he said.

Diplodia ear rot is characterized by a grayish or grayish-brown mold on and between the kernels on part of the ear. Gibberella ear rot, also known as Gib, is characterized by a pink to reddish mold, which begins at the tip of the ear and develops toward the base. Gib is easy to identify in the field on intact ears, but is more difficult to spot once the grain has been shelled.

Woloshuk encouraged producers and elevators to know what’s going on in their area. Producers need to walk their fields, pull 10 ears and determine if they have either Diplodia or Gibberella and the frequency, he said.

“If it’s Gib ear rot, then there’s concern about the mycotoxin deoxynivalenol, or DON, as well as zearalenone. If suspect, the grain should be tested, especially if it’s to be fed to livestock,” Woloshuk said.

Purdue Extension pathologist Charles Woloshuk holds one good corn ear and one infected by Diplodia ear rot. (Purdue Agricultural Communication photo)

Two grain inspectors in the central and north-central regions of Indiana who analyze grain for DON are East Indiana Grain Inspection Inc., located at 7020 N. Walnut St. in Muncie, and Titus Grain Inspection Inc., located at 1111 E. County Road 800 North in West Lafayette.

“If it’s Diplodia, there is no need to be concerned about mycotoxins. However, if you are feeding a high percentage of moldy grain, that’s still not good,” Woloshuk said. “In either case, the grain needs to be harvested as soon as possible and dried for storage. This grain should not be stored through the summer months.”

Farmers also are encouraged to adjust combines to reduce the amount of fine and small, shriveled or broken kernels.

Growers that have problems this year with either Gib or Diplodia can take steps to help prevent a reoccurrence.

Genetics are involved with Diplodia, Woloshuk said.

“If a producer had a problem this year with a specific hybrid, then I would not plant that hybrid again,” he said.

With either of the diseases, the crop residue should be tilled under because that’s where the pathogens can survive, Woloshuk said. He also recommended rotating to soybeans.

For questions and additional information about Diplodia or Gib, contact Woloshuk at 765-494-3450, woloshuk@purdue.edu

Growers should expect budget squeeze in 2010

Carolyn Shelby — Tue, 06 Oct 2009 04:51:13 +0000

WEST LAFAYETTE, Ind. — Farmers should see some relief on input costs next year, but profit margins are still likely to be squeezed.

While fertilizer prices have already come down, Erickson said overall costs remain relatively high and have not come down as much as commodity prices. Today's grain prices are placing downward pressure on the seed and crop protection companies.

Bruce Erickson, a Purdue University agricultural economist, said growers would likely see the most savings on fertilizer costs in the 2010 planting season.

“Some farmers were spending as much as $200 per acre to fertilize the 2009 corn crop, more than rent in some cases, when you consider nitrogen, P and K replacement, and any liming requirements,” Erickson said. “Next year it will be about one-third less — in our projections about $100 to $130 per acre — depending on soils and crop rotation.”

Erickson and his colleagues’ estimates are available in the “2010 Purdue Crop Cost & Return Guide,” now available online. The guide gives estimates of input costs and expected returns for the coming planting season.

At the time these estimates were prepared, Chicago Mercantile Exchange Group futures indicated that fall 2010 cash prices were near $3.30 per bushel for corn and $8.40 for soybeans. These prices are lower than what was used in the 2009 budget estimates by 70 cents for corn and 30 cents for soybeans.

It’s fairly certain that these costs and returns will change before anything is planted, but the estimates provide a starting point for thinking about 2010, Erickson said.

“The guide provides a general barometer for people who do their own budgets,” he said.

While fertilizer prices have already come down, Erickson said overall costs remain relatively high and have not come down as much as commodity prices. Today’s grain prices are placing downward pressure on the seed and crop protection companies.

“Some technology fees have increased, and we know list prices of some of the newest hybrids have gone up, but we’re also hearing of significant discounting as well,” Erickson said.

Also, some input suppliers have already announced substantially lower glyphosate prices.

“For the second year in a row, farmers’ margins will be less than they were in 2007 and 2008,” Erickson said.

One cost-saving area could be machinery. Erickson said industry reports show sales of new large farm machinery to be down, which could keep a lid on the cost of those purchases. On the other hand, interest in buying used equipment is on the rise.

“There could be some bargains on new equipment out there,” he said.

To download a copy of the 2010 Purdue Crop Cost & Return Guide, go to http://www.agecon.purdue.edu/extension/pubs/index.asp

Indiana farm fatalities up for the second consecutive year

Carolyn Shelby — Mon, 21 Sep 2009 14:22:45 +0000

WEST LAFAYETTE, Ind. — The 2008 Indiana Farm Fatality Report, compiled by Purdue University’s Agricultural Safety and Health Program, documents 28 agricultural-related fatalities in 2008, up from 24 in 2007.

The most common mistakes resulting in farm-related fatalities include using older tractors without rollover protective structures on hillsides and being in too much of a hurry and not using safety devices or switches on equipment.

“The general trend for the previous 30 years had been that farm fatalities were on the decline,” said Gail Deboy, Purdue agricultural safety engineer and report coordinator. “This has not been the case for the last two years, and that’s extremely disheartening.”

The report, released Friday (Sept. 18) at the Indiana Farm Bureau headquarters in Indianapolis, coincides with the start of National Farm Safety and Health Week, Sept. 20-26. Deboy and Bill Field of Purdue’s Department of Agricultural and Biological Engineering collected farm accident data and compiled the report, which is available online at http://cobweb.ecn.purdue.edu/~agsafety/IRSHC/fatalitySummary.html

The average age for farm work-related fatality victims in 2008 was 49.4, while the average age for the past 10 years was 52.6. The report documents two fatalities of males under the age of 18; their ages were 3 and 4. The two incidents involving children accounted for 7.1 percent of the total number of fatalities reported in 2008. Only one or two fatalities of children or adolescents under the age of 18 had been reported annually over the last 10 years, with the exception of 2000 when seven such fatalities were reported.

Victims 60 and older accounted for 39 percent of all documented cases, and that is consistent with a continuing trend of older individuals being involved in a disproportionate number of fatal incidents.

In the past, Howard and Fayette counties documented no fatalities in the previous 30 years, Deboy said. Fayette is now the only county not to have a recorded fatality.

The three Indiana counties with the most recorded fatalities during the last 30 years include Elkhart, LaGrange and Greene counties, which all have a large Amish population, Deboy said. This year LaGrange and Greene counties each reported one fatality.

“One thing not in the report is that in 2008 five of the 28 fatalities were caused by hydraulic failure or operator error in operating hydraulics,” Deboy said.

Eight deaths in 2008 were attributed to tractor rollovers, and five deaths were caused by machinery crushings or pinnings, according to the report.

“Most farmers don’t spend much time thinking about safety, and we hope this report helps create more of an awareness in the farming community, especially right before harvest,” Deboy said.

In the United States, there are 3.5 fatalities per 100,000 workers in all industries, according to statistics from the National Safety Council. There are 31.6 fatalities per 100,000 workers in agricultural production.

“With all the unpredictability of livestock and the sheer size of the equipment, farming is the most dangerous industry a person can be involved in, but farmers can take simple steps that go a long way to help protect themselves,” Deboy said.

Deboy recommends farmers take the following safety measures this fall:

Avoid working when tired. Farmers should take frequent breaks and get enough sleep.
Slow down and pay attention to details.
Keep all equipment shields in place. If a shield is removed to work on something, be sure to put it back on.
Use all safety locks and safety equipment. Don’t override safety locks thinking they will slow down productivity.
Use tractors with rollover protective structures.
Make sure the slow-moving vehicle emblem is visible and in good condition on all tractors and equipment.
Use hazard lights when operating tractors and equipment on roadways.

“The average reaction time for a person is three seconds,” Deboy said. “Tractor operators have less than three seconds to react from the time they realize they’re in a dangerous situation to when the tractor rolls over.”

For questions and more information about the report, contact Deboy at 765-496-2377, deboy@purdue.edu, or Field at 765-494-1191, field@purdue.edu

Surplus U.S. crop means lower prices; need to stimulate use

Carolyn Shelby — Thu, 10 Sep 2009 20:09:38 +0000

WEST LAFAYETTE, Ind. — This year could be another record-setting year for U.S. corn production, said Purdue University’s Chris Hurt, who believes those numbers will be reflected in the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s Sept. 12 Crop Production report.

This year could be another record-setting year for U.S. corn production, said Purdue Extension agriculture economist, Chris Hurt.

USDA’s August estimate for corn was 159.5 bushels per acre for the average yield — 3 bushels per acre above trend — which was bold at that time, according to the Purdue Extension agriculture economist. As the crop progressed in August, Hurt questioned: “Is that number high enough? Is it fairly accurate? Has the crop improved, in terms of yield potential, since early August?”

“I think we’ll see the September estimate for corn at about 161.5 bushels per acre.”

He is aware some might not agree with the estimate, given the less than ideal crop year. Spring was extremely wet, preventing many farmers from getting into their fields on time.

However, Hurt believes the sufficient moisture and moderate weather conditions have given the crop an opportunity to increase the grain count for corn and the pod count for soybeans, as well as grain fill or the weight of the seed.

“We’ll see record yields on corn,” Hurt said. “Could this year end up being that mammoth of a yield like we had in 2004?”

He compares this year’s crop to then.

“A year much like this one, in terms of moderate weather during the growing season, 2004 ended with record yields at 160.4 bushels per acre,” Hurt said. “I think we’ll take that out in the September estimate at about 161.5.

“In looking back, the USDA weekly crop ratings track about like they did in 2004. It’s the best crop we’ve seen, and I think corn may end up slightly better this year, because in 2004 we saw declines in late August and on into September.”

Unless there is a frost, Hurt expects the crop to continue to look good and even improve a little.

Hurt also noted that in 2004, yields were about 10 percent above trend. If that were to happen again, that would put yields in the upper 160-bushel-per-acre range — close to 170 bushels per acre, he said.

“It’s too early to talk about yields that good, but we could certainly begin to think that there’s potential for yields to be in the mid-160s,” Hurt said. “I don’t think the market is thinking a number quite that high at this point. We would make new contract low prices on corn if it would move on up into the mid-160-bushel-per-acre range, and this means vulnerability on the downside of prices.”

For soybeans, the crop rating is the highest rating in recent years, Hurt pointed out.

In early August, USDA had soybean estimates at 41.7 bushels per acre, which was below trend, said Hurt, who believes they were right in their estimate.

“The beans had a long way to go, but they’ve come a long way since early August and from what can be seen on the weather forecast, weather is not going to be a threatening factor in September,” Hurt said. “I think we can be above trend this year. The previous record is 43 bushels per acre, and I’m looking for the USDA’s September number to push us on up — eventually going above that 43-bushel-per-acre record yield range going into October.”

This means there is going to be a lot of corn and soybeans, and prices are going to decrease to get end users to come in and buy more of this crop, Hurt explained.

Soybean carryover may increase from extremely tight supplies of 110 million bushels in early September, according to Hurt, who expects to see that triple and move up to 300 million bushels by the end of the 2009-2010 marketing year.

“Again, there are some price depressing forces on soybeans, but the worst might not come until we see the size of the South American crop as we go into January, February and March of 2010,” he said.

From a strategy standpoint, Hurt said this year has a different look.

“We’re likely to see good returns for corn storage — depressed prices at harvest time and above normal price appreciation going into next spring and summer,” he said. “With soybeans, we have the threat of a return to normal yields in South America and that alone would add about 800 billion bushels more world production.

“The fear then is that our exports really drop off for soybeans in the spring and summer of 2010 and we actually end up seeing lower prices. If soybean prices are around $9 out of the field this fall, we could see soybeans under $9 next spring and summer.”

However, he said a lot will depend on world demand, the value of the dollar and the ultimate size of the U.S. and South American crops.

“We’re really in a different situation now than we’ve been in,” Hurt said. “The last three years, we’ve tended to see shortages in the world market and prices had to be high to get end users to cut back.

“Now we are on the other side. Big crops in the United States could mean that we have to depress prices to get more end users to come into the market and, for now, it looks like we’ve tilted a little bit back to the old days of surplus production and lower prices to stimulate use.

Honeybee health, production focus of new Web site

Carolyn Shelby — Wed, 26 Aug 2009 15:46:49 +0000

WEST LAFAYETTE, Ind. — Purdue University and other land-grant universities have developed a Web site that focuses on honeybee production and health.

Purdue research is focusing on breeding bees that are more resistant to Varroa mites.

The site was developed for beekeepers and other producers to help them stay current on industry issues and trends. It is located at http://www.extension.org/bee%20health.

“Purdue is one of many land-grant universities helping bee producers better understand the impact of bee health in the industry,” said Greg Hunt, Purdue Extension bee specialist.

One serious issue affecting the industry since 2006 is Colony Collapse Disorder (CCD). CCD occurs when large numbers of bees in a colony go missing. The majority of the adult bees die away from the hive, leaving a few younger bees behind.

“We do not know what is causing CCD. What we do know is that parasitic mites may have an impact on the syndrome,” Hunt said.

Purdue research is focusing on breeding bees that are more resistant to Varroa mites, he said.

“Bee decline can be traced back to negative factors, including immunology, nutrition, toxicology, pathology, genetics and bee husbandry,” Hunt said.

However, the greatest decline in numbers of bee colonies for Indiana and the nation as a whole correspond to the period just before and after the discovery of parasitic bee mites in the United States. The bee population has not recovered since that time, and the mites may be making other problems related to bee health even worse.

Farmers, fruit and vegetable producers and home growers who rely on bees to pollinate their crops have been negatively impacted by the decline in bee population.

For more information on bee health, contact Hunt at 765-494-4605, ghunt@purdue.edu

In Related News:

No Related News

News via Lafayette Indiana Online

Honeybee health, production focus of new Web site