WEST LAFAYETTE, Ind. — Farmers should see some relief on input costs next year, but profit margins are still likely to be squeezed.

Bruce Erickson, a Purdue University agricultural economist, said growers would likely see the most savings on fertilizer costs in the 2010 planting season.

“Some farmers were spending as much as $200 per acre to fertilize the 2009 corn crop, more than rent in some cases, when you consider nitrogen, P and K replacement, and any liming requirements,” Erickson said. “Next year it will be about one-third less — in our projections about $100 to $130 per acre — depending on soils and crop rotation.”

Erickson and his colleagues’ estimates are available in the “2010 Purdue Crop Cost & Return Guide,” now available online. The guide gives estimates of input costs and expected returns for the coming planting season.

At the time these estimates were prepared, Chicago Mercantile Exchange Group futures indicated that fall 2010 cash prices were near $3.30 per bushel for corn and $8.40 for soybeans. These prices are lower than what was used in the 2009 budget estimates by 70 cents for corn and 30 cents for soybeans.

It’s fairly certain that these costs and returns will change before anything is planted, but the estimates provide a starting point for thinking about 2010, Erickson said.

“The guide provides a general barometer for people who do their own budgets,” he said.

While fertilizer prices have already come down, Erickson said overall costs remain relatively high and have not come down as much as commodity prices. Today’s grain prices are placing downward pressure on the seed and crop protection companies.

“Some technology fees have increased, and we know list prices of some of the newest hybrids have gone up, but we’re also hearing of significant discounting as well,” Erickson said.

Also, some input suppliers have already announced substantially lower glyphosate prices.

“For the second year in a row, farmers’ margins will be less than they were in 2007 and 2008,” Erickson said.

One cost-saving area could be machinery. Erickson said industry reports show sales of new large farm machinery to be down, which could keep a lid on the cost of those purchases. On the other hand, interest in buying used equipment is on the rise.

“There could be some bargains on new equipment out there,” he said.

To download a copy of the 2010 Purdue Crop Cost & Return Guide, go to http://www.agecon.purdue.edu/extension/pubs/index.asp

WEST LAFAYETTE, Ind. — This year could be another record-setting year for U.S. corn production, said Purdue University’s Chris Hurt, who believes those numbers will be reflected in the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s Sept. 12 Crop Production report.

USDA’s August estimate for corn was 159.5 bushels per acre for the average yield — 3 bushels per acre above trend — which was bold at that time, according to the Purdue Extension agriculture economist. As the crop progressed in August, Hurt questioned: “Is that number high enough? Is it fairly accurate? Has the crop improved, in terms of yield potential, since early August?”

“I think we’ll see the September estimate for corn at about 161.5 bushels per acre.”

He is aware some might not agree with the estimate, given the less than ideal crop year. Spring was extremely wet, preventing many farmers from getting into their fields on time.

However, Hurt believes the sufficient moisture and moderate weather conditions have given the crop an opportunity to increase the grain count for corn and the pod count for soybeans, as well as grain fill or the weight of the seed.

“We’ll see record yields on corn,” Hurt said. “Could this year end up being that mammoth of a yield like we had in 2004?”

He compares this year’s crop to then.

“A year much like this one, in terms of moderate weather during the growing season, 2004 ended with record yields at 160.4 bushels per acre,” Hurt said. “I think we’ll take that out in the September estimate at about 161.5.

“In looking back, the USDA weekly crop ratings track about like they did in 2004. It’s the best crop we’ve seen, and I think corn may end up slightly better this year, because in 2004 we saw declines in late August and on into September.”

Unless there is a frost, Hurt expects the crop to continue to look good and even improve a little.

Hurt also noted that in 2004, yields were about 10 percent above trend. If that were to happen again, that would put yields in the upper 160-bushel-per-acre range — close to 170 bushels per acre, he said.

“It’s too early to talk about yields that good, but we could certainly begin to think that there’s potential for yields to be in the mid-160s,” Hurt said. “I don’t think the market is thinking a number quite that high at this point. We would make new contract low prices on corn if it would move on up into the mid-160-bushel-per-acre range, and this means vulnerability on the downside of prices.”

For soybeans, the crop rating is the highest rating in recent years, Hurt pointed out.

In early August, USDA had soybean estimates at 41.7 bushels per acre, which was below trend, said Hurt, who believes they were right in their estimate.

“The beans had a long way to go, but they’ve come a long way since early August and from what can be seen on the weather forecast, weather is not going to be a threatening factor in September,” Hurt said. “I think we can be above trend this year. The previous record is 43 bushels per acre, and I’m looking for the USDA’s September number to push us on up — eventually going above that 43-bushel-per-acre record yield range going into October.”

This means there is going to be a lot of corn and soybeans, and prices are going to decrease to get end users to come in and buy more of this crop, Hurt explained.

Soybean carryover may increase from extremely tight supplies of 110 million bushels in early September, according to Hurt, who expects to see that triple and move up to 300 million bushels by the end of the 2009-2010 marketing year.

“Again, there are some price depressing forces on soybeans, but the worst might not come until we see the size of the South American crop as we go into January, February and March of 2010,” he said.

From a strategy standpoint, Hurt said this year has a different look.

“We’re likely to see good returns for corn storage — depressed prices at harvest time and above normal price appreciation going into next spring and summer,” he said. “With soybeans, we have the threat of a return to normal yields in South America and that alone would add about 800 billion bushels more world production.

“The fear then is that our exports really drop off for soybeans in the spring and summer of 2010 and we actually end up seeing lower prices. If soybean prices are around $9 out of the field this fall, we could see soybeans under $9 next spring and summer.”

However, he said a lot will depend on world demand, the value of the dollar and the ultimate size of the U.S. and South American crops.

“We’re really in a different situation now than we’ve been in,” Hurt said. “The last three years, we’ve tended to see shortages in the world market and prices had to be high to get end users to cut back.

“Now we are on the other side. Big crops in the United States could mean that we have to depress prices to get more end users to come into the market and, for now, it looks like we’ve tilted a little bit back to the old days of surplus production and lower prices to stimulate use.

WEST LAFAYETTE, Ind. — A slow start to spring planting led to a mad dash by farmers to finish in June, followed by cool and wet weather that hampered crop development. Those wild fluctuations in the 2009 crop season will provide the backdrop for fall crop yield projections that will be presented Aug. 12 at the Indiana State Fair in Indianapolis.

The annual crop report takes place at 9:30 a.m. in the Pioneer Our Land Pavilion and is open to the public. Speakers include Chris Hurt, Purdue University agricultural economist; Greg Preston, Indiana director of the National Agricultural Statistics Service; and Anne Hazlett, director of the Indiana State Department of Agriculture. Jay Akridge, Purdue’s Glenn W. Sample Dean of Agriculture, will moderate the panel discussion.

Crop report panelists will analyze that morning’s U.S. Department of Agriculture crop production numbers and what that data means for Indiana.

“The August crop report is one of the most anticipated in years,” Hurt said. “It will provide an evaluation of the actual acres that finally got planted this spring and what the cool summer means to yield potential.

“Just one year ago, the world was fearfully short of basic foodstuffs. This year, much better world harvest and improved prospects for U.S. production appear to have reduced the fear of supply shortages. Large crops will help reduce food price inflation, which has been a concern over the past year.”

Preston said spring planting started late across much of Indiana.

“On June 1, the amount of corn planted was 17 days behind the average five-year pace,” he said. “For soybeans, on June 1 we were 14 days behind for the five-year average.”

Lower-than-average temperatures after planting extended corn and soybean crop development, Preston said.

“By the end of July, crop development was still behind last year’s pace and about half as far along as where we would be for the five-year average,” he said.

The crop report starts 30 minutes before the Pioneer Our Land Pavilion officially opens. Those attending the meeting should enter at the main entrance on the building’s south side.

Those with Internet access also can follow the report on Twitter, the social networking Web site. Regular “tweets” will be posted throughout the meeting on the Purdue Extension Twitter feed. To receive the Twitter posts, visit http://twitter.com/PurdueExtension and request to “follow” the feed. Users must already have set up a free Twitter account.

WEST LAFAYETTE, Ind. — Indiana wheat yields this summer are running about good to average with less than one-fourth of the crop left to be harvested, said a Purdue University agronomist.

To date, the central and southern regions of the state have 91 percent to 95 percent of wheat acres harvested, with the northern region at 61 percent harvested.

In central Indiana counties, yields ranged from 80-120 bushels per acre with a small amount of head scab present.

Shaun Casteel, Purdue Extension small grains specialist, said he did some field scouting and things looked good.

“It does not surprise me to see yields of more than 100 bushels per acre,” Casteel said.

The southern region averaged 70-90 bushels per acre. This average is lower than normal because of an increase in Fusarium head blight, also known as scab, Casteel said. This may result in an increase in mycotoxin levels that could reach 10 parts per million and could lead to elevators rejecting the wheat.

In the state’s northern region there was little to no head scab present. Farmers in the region have their wheat after the corn harvest, giving them a chance to plant their wheat earlier.

Farmers interested in double cropping their soybeans after the wheat harvest should consider their region’s frost date.

“Farmers should give themselves 90 days from planting to the first frost date that is typical for their region to allow the soybeans to fully mature,” Casteel said.

For more information about the Indiana wheat crop, contact Casteel at 765-494-0895, scasteel@purdue.edu

WEST LAFAYETTE, Ind. — Crop growers now have access to the 2008 variety trial yield results for corn and soybean varieties tested in Indiana.

“As with a lot of people, this year we had challenges, but the yields are much better than anticipated,” said Phil DeVillez, director of Purdue’s Crop Performance Program.

DeVillez and his team tested 240 corn hybrids at 12 sites and about 200 soybean hybrids at nine sites.

Yield data is available at the Purdue Crop Performance Program Web site, http://www.agry.purdue.edu/pcpp/. The variety trial results are free for farmers.

“The best thing a grower can do when contemplating varieties, is to compare this year’s data to last year’s data,” he said. “Always look at multi-year data.

“Something that was on top last year could be in the middle of the pack or even on the bottom this year, in terms of performance. It all depends on the planting date, growing season and the rain patterns.”

DeVillez said the past two years have been very different. If a variety is at the top in terms of performance both last year and this year, then you can feel confident about it being a good variety for the area.

For additional information and questions about how to interpret the data, contact DeVillez at (765) 583-1406 or pld@purdue.edu.

“We learned that good yields can still be achieved with late planting,” he said. “We replanted three of our locations (Butlerville, Shelburn and Vincennes) and probably should have replanted a fourth, but we just didn’t have enough time.

“We planted our plot here in West Lafayette May 29, which is a good month behind normal, so we didn’t expect yields to be very good on that plot. Our last planting date was June 12.”

DeVillez said the plot at the Purdue Agronomy Farm yielded more than 200 bushels of corn an acre. He attributes the surprisingly good yields to September’s warm weather, as well as improved genetics and the insect resistance with which they’ve been bred.

“If you look back, September was really warm and that helped us catch up in terms of growing degree days,” he said. “Because the crop was planted late and was still maturing, it worked out quite well, other than putting us behind for harvest.

“We didn’t start harvest until Oct. 1. Typically, we start sometime during the first week of September.”

DeVillez said the data is very representative of the state this year.

This also was the first year for the Farmer Nominated Variety Program, which is a partnership between the Indiana Soybean Alliance and Purdue Agronomy. This year, 16 soybean varieties were entered into the trials and DeVillez hopes to see that number grow next year. The program, designed to ensure producers have an objective source of information about the plant health and yield characteristics of individual soybean varieties, is funded by checkoff dollars.

“It basically allows farmers to have input about what varieties will be tested,” DeVillez said. “If you have a favorite variety that’s not included in the program because the company doesn’t participate or chooses not to put it in the test, then you can nominate it.”

For more information about the Farmer Nominated Variety Program, contact the Indiana Soybean Alliance at (800) 735-0195 or DeVillez.