WEST LAFAYETTE, Ind. — Urban workers could suffer most from climate change as the cost of food drives them into poverty, according to a new study that quantifies the effects of climate on the world’s poor populations.

These maps show projected changes in frequency and magnitude of climate extremes. A Purdue team found that the occurrence and magnitude of what are currently the 30-year-maximum values for wet, dry and hot extremes are projected to substantially increase for much of the world. (Diffenbaugh lab image)

A team led by Purdue University researchers examined the potential economic influence of adverse climate events, such as heat waves, drought and heavy rains, on those in 16 developing countries. Urban workers in Bangladesh, Mexico and Zambia were found to be the most at risk.

“Extreme weather affects agricultural productivity and can raise the price of staple foods, such as grains, that are important to poor households in developing countries,” said Noah Diffenbaugh, the associate professor of earth and atmospheric sciences and interim director of Purdue’s Climate Change Research Center who co-led the study. “Studies have shown global warming will likely increase the frequency and intensity of heat waves, drought and floods in many areas. It is important to understand which socioeconomic groups and countries could see changes in poverty rates in order to make informed policy decisions.”

The team used data from the late 20th century and projections for the late 21st century to develop a framework that examined extreme climate events, comparable shocks to grain production and the impact on the number of impoverished people in each country.

Thomas Hertel, a distinguished professor of agricultural economics and co-leader of the study, said that although urban workers only contribute modestly to total poverty rates in the sample countries, they are the most vulnerable group to changes in grains production.

This graph shows the percentage of the population in poverty in 2001 and the change in poverty due to extreme climate for the sample countries. A Purdue team found that urban workers could suffer the most from climate change as the cost of food drives them into poverty. (Hertel lab image)

“Food is a major expenditure for the poor and, while those who work in agriculture would have some benefit from higher grains prices, the urban poor would only get the negative effects,” said Hertel, who also is executive director of Purdue’s Center for Global Trade Analysis. “This is an important finding given that the United Nations projects a continuing shift in population concentrations from rural to urban areas in virtually all of these developing countries.”

With nearly 1 billion of the world’s poor living on less than $1 a day, extreme events can have a devastating impact, he said.

“Bangladesh, Mexico and Zambia showed the greatest percentage of the population entering poverty in the wake of extreme drought, with an additional 1.4 percent, 1.8 percent and 4.6 percent of their populations being impoverished by future climate extremes, respectively,” Hertel said. “This translates to an additional 1.8 million people impoverished per country for Bangladesh and Mexico and an additional half million people in Zambia.”

A paper detailing the work will be published in Thursday’s (Aug. 20) issue of Environmental Research Letters. In addition to Diffenbaugh and Hertel, Syud Amer Ahmed, a recent Purdue graduate and a member of the development research group for The World Bank, co-authored the paper. The World Bank’s Trust Fund for Environmentally and Socially Sustainable Development funded the research.

The team identified the maximum rainfall, drought and heat wave for the 30-year periods of 1971-2000 and 2071-2100 and then compared the maximums for the two time periods.

Factory workers in Bangladesh. (Photo copyright the World Bank/Thomas Sennett)

The global climate model experiments developed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, or IPCC, were used for the future projections of extreme events. The team used an IPCC scenario that has greenhouse gas emissions continuing to follow the current trend, Diffenbaugh said.

“The occurrence and magnitude of what are currently the 30-year-maximum values for wet, dry and hot extremes are projected to substantially increase for much of the world,” he said. “Heat waves and drought in the Mediterranean showed a potential 2700 percent and 800 percent increase in occurrence, respectively, and extreme rainfall in Southeast Asia was projected to potentially increase by 900 percent.”

In addition, Southeast Asia showed a projected 40 percent increase in the magnitude of the worst rainfall; central Africa showed a projected 1000 percent increase in the magnitude of the worst heat wave; and the Mediterranean showed a projected 60 percent increase in the worst drought.

A statistical analysis was used to determine grain productivity shocks that would correspond in magnitude to the climate extremes, and then the economic impact of the supply shock was determined. Future predicted extreme climate events were compared to historical agricultural productivity extremes in order to assess the likely impact on agricultural production, prices and wages. Because the projected changes in extreme rainfall and heat wave events were too large for the current model to accept, only the extreme drought events were incorporated into the economic projections, making the projected poverty impacts a conservative estimate, he said.

To assess the potential economic impact of a given change in wages and grains prices, the team used data from each country’s household survey. The estimates of likely wage and price changes following an extreme climate event were obtained from a global trade model, called the Global Trade Analysis Project, or GTAP, which is maintained by Purdue’s agricultural economics department.

Purdue’s GTAP framework is supported by an international consortium of 27 national and international agencies and is used by a network of 6,500 researchers in 140 countries.

Large reductions in grains productivity due to extreme climate events are supported by historical data. In 1991 grains productivity in Malawi and Zambia declined by about 50 percent when southern Africa experienced a severe drought.

Diffenbaugh said this is an initial quantification of how poverty is tied to climate fluctuations, and the team is working to improve the modeling and analysis system in order to enable more comprehensive assessments of the link between climate volatility and poverty vulnerability.

WEST LAFAYETTE, Ind. — Indiana’s hardest hit economic region will provide the backdrop for a Purdue University conference on building economic sustainability.

“Regional Innovation During Boom and Bust” will take place from 10 a.m. to 5 p.m. June 26 at the Hilton Garden Inn of South Bend. The conference, covering such topics as regional economic partnerships and resources for economic recovery, is sponsored by the Purdue Center for Regional Development (PCRD), in cooperation with Purdue University Calumet, Purdue University North Central and Indiana University-Purdue University Fort Wayne.

The conference is aimed at community leaders, elected officials, planners, educators and economic development professionals.

Conference planners intentionally chose northern Indiana for the event, said Terri Lester, PCRD program manager and conference coordinator.

“We had already planned a couple of other programs in northern Indiana to deal with the secondary effects of jobs lost in the automotive and recreational vehicle industries,” Lester said. “After some discussion we decided to hold our conference there, as well.”

While statewide unemployment averaged 9.9 percent in April, the jobless rate was significantly higher in many northern Indiana counties. Elkhart and LaGrange counties posted the highest unemployment rates in April, at 17.8 percent and 17.7 percent.

The conference features talks by economic development experts and breakout sessions.

Richard Longworth, former Chicago Tribune reporter and author of “Caught in the Middle: America’s Heartland in the Age of Globalism,” is the keynote speaker. “Caught in the Middle” explores the challenges the Midwest faces as it adjusts to the global economy.

Other speakers include William Kittredge, director of national programs and evaluation for the U.S. Department of Commerce’s Economic Development Administration (EDA); Robert Sawyer, regional director of the Chicago office of EDA; and Nicholas Lammers, acting regional administrator of the Chicago office of the U.S. Department of Labor’s Employment and Training Administration.

“We’ll also have breakout sessions featuring existing regional efforts, to demonstrate that going across geographic and ideological boundaries is acceptable, feasible, successful and beneficial to communities,” Lester said. “Another breakout session will showcase tools and resources that are available to communities, agencies and organizations to assist them with their economic recovery.

“It is our hope that attendees will leave the conference recognizing that acting regionally can be accomplished and is worthwhile to all involved.”

The EDA is providing financial support for the conference.

Conference registration is $60 and includes lunch. To register online or to print a mail-in registration form, log onto the PCRD Web site at http://www.pcrd.purdue.edu/ and then click on the conference link under “Upcoming Events.” The Web site also contains additional conference information.

The Hilton Garden Inn is located at 53995 Indiana 933, near the University of Notre Dame on South Bend’s north side.

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WEST LAFAYETTE, Ind. — The relationships between food and the environment, sustainable and organic agriculture, and communities and economic development will be discussed at an April 26 forum.

Food, Communities and Sustainability: A Public Square Forum Initiative is 1-9 p.m. at the Wells Community Center, 638 North St., Lafayette, Indiana. The event, which is free and open to the public, will feature two panel discussions, a reception and a film screening of “King Corn.”

The “Food and Economic Development in Our Local Communities” panel is 1-2:15 p.m. The moderator is Nick Lilovich, president of the Purdue Student Pugwash organization. The panelists are Dennis Carson, redevelopment director for Lafayette and director of Downtown Development Council; Ivan Brumbaugh, representing Main Street Cheese in Lafayette; and Gabriele Mayer, representing Bistro 501 in Lafayette.

The “Farming and Sustainable Development” panel is 2:30-3:45 p.m. The moderator is Jessica Holsinger, vice president of the Purdue Student Pugwash organization. The panelists are Steve Bonney, president and director of Sustainable Earth; Abby Abbott-Rider, representing Thistle Byre Farm; David and Marilyn Harmon, owners of Harmon’s Organic Gardens; Barb Middleton, owner of Longhouse Farms; and Cody Hall, representing Lafayette City Food Co-op Project.

Just Cause Catering from Indianapolis will cater a reception from 3:45-5 p.m.

The screening for “King Corn” is 7-9 p.m. in Matthews Hall, Room 210. The feature documentary is about the corn industry and the role corn syrup plays in the American diet.

“Purdue’s engagement programs often highlight how the university supplies knowledge to the community, but this is a stellar example of how people in the community are sharing their knowledge through a forum that brings Purdue and the community together,” says Susan Curtis, associate dean of interdisciplinary programs and engagement.

The forum is sponsored by PLACE, Purdue Liberal Arts Community Engagement. The Purdue Liberal Arts Community Engagement program started in January 2007 and is aimed at increasing its faculty’s community engagement, as well as examining and solving social issues that affect citizens throughout the state.

The event is organized by Anne Knupfer, professor of educational studies and an affiliate professor of history, American studies, and women’s studies; Nadine Dolby, associate professor of curriculum studies and an affiliate professor in American studies; and Whitney Walton, professor of history and an affiliate professor in American studies.