Keith Cherkauer, an assistant professor of agricultural and biological engineering, surveys the Wabash River, one of many that could experience an increase in winter and spring flooding based on rising temperatures in the next century. (Purdue Agricultural Communication photo/Tom Campbell)

Keith Cherkauer, an assistant professor of agricultural and biological engineering, ran simulation models that show Indiana, Illinois, Wisconsin and Michigan could see as much as 28 percent more precipitation by the year 2070, with much of that coming in the winter and spring. His projections also show drier summer and fall seasons.

“This was already a difficult spring to plant because of how wet it was. If you were to add another inch or so of rain to that, it would be a problem,” said Cherkauer, whose findings were published in the early online version of the Journal of Great Lakes Research. “It could make it difficult to get into fields. There’s also a potential for more flooding.”

Cherkauer used three different scenarios based on the amount of carbon that could be emitted into the atmosphere in the coming decades. Carbon calculations were based on assumptions including population, technological advancements, the economy and other factors.

Those scenarios were used in two climate projection models from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change that give climate predictions from the years 1950 through 2099. Cherkauer said in years from 1950 to 2007 where actual climate data differed slightly from projections, the difference was subtracted to give a better projection for the future.

He calculated that winters in the four states could be between 2.7 degrees to 5.4 degrees Fahrenheit warmer by 2077 than today. Summers could be between 3.6 degrees and 10.8 degrees Fahrenheit warmer.

Those projections were then put into the Variable Infiltration Capacity Model – which simulates how precipitation moves through land surface environments – to predict stream flow for six rivers: the Chippewa River, Wisconsin River, Illinois River, Wabash River, Grand River and Rock River.

Cherkauer estimates that increased precipitation would result in about a 20 percent increase in peak and mean flows for the Wabash River, for instance.

Daily river flow would be lower during the summer and fall despite an expected increase in thunderstorms and heavy-rain events. Overall precipitation would be down in those seasons, he said, and heavy rains from time to time would still leave prolonged periods without precipitation.

“This area is not going to be short of water, but we may not have it at the right times,” Cherkauer said. “We probably need to figure out how to store the excess water from the spring so we have it in the summer when we need it.”

He said there are several possible avenues for storing spring water, from damming rivers to create reservoirs, to refilling aquifers that are pumped for water in the summer.

Cherkauer said next he wants to study how climate predictions would affect drought conditions, as well as how the projections on stream flow would impact aquatic life and ecology. NASA funded his research.

Cherkauer’s work is affiliated with the Purdue Climate Change Research Center and the Center for the Environment in Discovery Park.

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Through the National Science Foundation project, the researchers will canvass three communities to collect data and distribute surveys to determine the extent of flood damage and the toll it is having on communities.

Residents in Indiana, Illinois, Iowa and Missouri are still grappling with an estimated $10 billion in damage from the flooding, which killed 24 people and injured another 150 people in June and July. Initially, Purdue’s six-month study will focus on some of the hardest hit communities – Cedar Rapids, Iowa; St. Louis; and Terre Haute, Ind.

“The main reason for much of the widespread flood damage was infrastructure failures,” said Eric Dietz, director of Discovery Park’s Homeland Security Institute. “The collapse of a bridge, road, home, business, hospital, church or other critical structure can devastate a community, creating social and emotional stresses that can have lasting effects on people’s lives.”

Researchers, led by civil engineering professor Mark Hastak, will conduct personal interviews and distribute surveys to those living in and around the flooded communities. Survey answers will provide demographic information about the residents, how long they have lived in the community, and the infrastructure and businesses that are a part of their regular daily lives.

Researchers will work closely with the Federal Emergency Management Agency, Red Cross and other local agencies involved with infrastructure planning and maintenance, Hastak said.

Congress has earmarked $10 billion for Midwest flood relief. Flood damage in Indiana is expected to reach $1 billion. Estimates are far higher in Iowa, where communities such as Cedar Rapids had 1,300 city blocks under water, forcing the evacuation of 24,000 residents.

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